# Lagged & First-Differenced Demographics

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1: Z_lag5 → rating | rating_numeric | 2,087 | 79 | 0.426 |
| C2: Z_lag5 → spread | sovereign_spread | 727 | 23 | 0.362 |
| C3: ΔZ → rating | rating_numeric | 2,087 | 79 | 0.100 |
| C4: ΔZ → spread | sovereign_spread | 727 | 23 | 0.258 |
| C5: OADR+20 → rating | rating_numeric | 614 | 68 | 0.285 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1: Z_lag5 → rating | Z_1_lag5 | 4.7970 | 7.3680 | 0.5151 |  |
| C1: Z_lag5 → rating | Z_2_lag5 | -0.3890 | 1.0813 | 0.7191 |  |
| C1: Z_lag5 → rating | Z_3_lag5 | 0.0130 | 0.0437 | 0.7667 |  |
| C2: Z_lag5 → spread | Z_1_lag5 | 23.5492 | 11.1637 | 0.0353 | ** |
| C2: Z_lag5 → spread | Z_2_lag5 | -3.2215 | 1.5014 | 0.0322 | ** |
| C2: Z_lag5 → spread | Z_3_lag5 | 0.1177 | 0.0564 | 0.0372 | ** |
| C3: ΔZ → rating | d_Z_1 | 5.3898 | 6.9183 | 0.4360 |  |
| C3: ΔZ → rating | d_Z_2 | -0.3233 | 0.9792 | 0.7413 |  |
| C3: ΔZ → rating | d_Z_3 | 0.0039 | 0.0420 | 0.9255 |  |
| C4: ΔZ → spread | d_Z_1 | -24.8422 | 33.8741 | 0.4636 |  |
| C4: ΔZ → spread | d_Z_2 | 4.0117 | 4.6055 | 0.3840 |  |
| C4: ΔZ → spread | d_Z_3 | -0.1621 | 0.1756 | 0.3563 |  |
| C5: OADR+20 → rating | oadr_plus20 | 15.4064 | 4.6066 | 0.0009 | *** |

*Lagged and differenced demographics*